US President Donald Trump has claimed that oil and gasoline prices could fall sharply once the United States “wins” the ongoing war with Iran. In a Truth Social post on September 7, Trump said prices could initially fall to around a gallon and ultimately drop below , arguing that the decline would happen quickly after the conflict ends. However, current market conditions remain highly uncertain. Brent crude was trading near .50 a barrel on September 8 as escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continued to raise concerns over global oil supplies. Key Highlights Donald Trump predicted a sharp fall in oil and gasoline prices after a US victory over Iran. Trump said prices could initially fall to around a gallon. He claimed gasoline could ultimately fall below a gallon. Current oil prices remain elevated amid disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Brent crude was recently trading near .50 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major concern for global energy markets. Trump Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall Sharply In his latest Truth Social post, Trump said oil prices would “drop precipitously” after the US wins the war with Iran. He predicted that gasoline could fall to around per gallon and eventually below per gallon. Trump has repeatedly argued that the higher energy costs being faced by Americans are linked to the ongoing military conflict and that prices would stabilise rapidly once the war ends. Why Are Oil Prices High Right Now? Oil markets remain under pressure because the conflict has disrupted energy transportation and raised concerns about supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. Reuters reported that Brent crude rose to around .49 a barrel, while WTI reached about .92 as tensions between Washington and Tehran intensified. The disruption has reduced tanker traffic through the Strait, although alternative routes and additional production from some oil-producing countries have helped prevent an even larger supply shock. Can Gasoline Really Fall Below a Gallon? Trump's prediction is possible only if several factors move in the same direction, including a significant easing of supply disruptions, lower crude prices and stabilisation of energy markets. But there is currently no certainty that gasoline prices will fall below per gallon immediately after the conflict ends. Gasoline prices also depend on refining costs, transportation, taxes, inventories and regional market conditions. Current US gasoline prices remain well above Trump's target. Recent reports put the national average around .15 per gallon. Markets Remain Focused on Strait of Hormuz The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because disruptions there can affect a large share of global energy shipments. Iran has recently threatened further measures affecting shipping through the Gulf as tensions with the US continue. Any sustained disruption could therefore keep crude prices elevated even if military operations begin to wind down. Trump's Previous Oil Price Claims Trump has previously said that oil prices would decline rapidly once the Iran conflict and related threats were resolved. In March, he also argued that short-term higher oil prices would fall once the Iranian nuclear threat was eliminated. However, oil markets have increasingly responded more to actual supply and shipping conditions than to Trump's social-media statements. An Axios analysis found that the market's reaction to his posts about the Iran war had diminished over time. Timeline of Trump's Latest Oil Price Claim September 7, 2026: Trump posted on Truth Social that oil prices would fall sharply after a US victory over Iran. September 7: Trump predicted gasoline could initially reach around per gallon and ultimately fall below . September 8: Brent crude remained near .50 per barrel amid renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. September 8: Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on global energy markets. Latest Update Trump has predicted that US gasoline prices could eventually fall below a gallon after the Iran war ends. However, the prediction remains a political claim rather than a confirmed market forecast. With Brent crude still near 0 a barrel and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz facing significant disruption, energy markets remain highly volatile. Whether gasoline can actually reach Trump's sub- target will depend largely on how quickly the conflict ends, how much oil supply returns to global markets and whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises.
